International Journal of Political Science and Development
 

International Journal of Political Science and Development

Vol. 5(7), pp. 236–252, November, 2017. 

DOI: 10.14662/IJPSD2017.080

ISSN: 2360-784X

Research Paper

Stochastic Time Series Analysis for Rice Production and Price in Nigeria Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model

^1*Binuomote, S. O.,  ¹Adesiyan, I.  ¹Hassan, S. O., ¹Akindele, A. and ¹O. Taiwo

¹Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology,

PMB 4000, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria. E-mail: sobinuomote@lautech.edu.ng

Accepted 8 November 2017

This study forecasted the production and producer price of local rice in Nigeria from the historical data sourced from the online Statistical database of the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations using univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The autoregressive (p) and moving average (q) parameters were identified based on the significant spikes in the plots of partial autocorrelation function (PACF) and autocorrelation function (ACF) of the different time series. ARIMA (1,1,0) model was found suitable for Nigeria rice production, while ARIMA (0,1,1) was best fitted for forecasting of the producer price of rice in Nigeria. Prediction was made for the immediate next 24 years (2017-2040) for rice production and 23 years(1961-2013) for producer price of rice using the best fitted ARIMA models based on minimum value of the selection criterion, that is, Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Schwarz-Bayesian information criteria (SBC) with the performances of models were validated by the necessary diagnostic tests. The results of the ARIMA models generated on R software show that local rice production and its price in Nigeria will continue to increase going into the future.

Keywords: ARIMA, Rice, Forecasting, Autocorrelation, Production, Nigeria

Cite This Article As: Binuomote, S. O., Adesiyan, I., Hassan, S. O., Akindele, A. and O. Taiwo (2017). Stochastic Time Series Analysis for Rice Production and Price in Nigeria Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model.. Int. J. Polit. Sci. Develop. 5(7) 236-252