Academic Research Journal of Agricultural Science and Research
 

Vol. 6(9), pp. 584-595. December, 2018.

ISSN: 2360-7874 

 DOI: 10.14662/ARJASRD2018.120

Full Length Research

An Econometric Modelling of the Effect of Armed Conflict on Agricultural Production in Nigeria: (1961-2017)

^1*Binuomote, S. O., ¹Adeleke, O. A., ²Farayola, C. O., ³Olawuyi, T. O. and ¹S. A. Adebayo

¹Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology,

PMB 4000, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria. E-mail: *sobinuomote@lautech.edu.ng; +2348033879828

²Department of Agricultural Development and Management, Agricultural and Rural Management Training Institute (ARMTI), P.M.B. 1343, Ilorin, Kwara State. Nigeria. E-mail: cofarayola@armti.gov.ng

²Research Outreach Department, National Cereals Research Institute, P.M.B 8, Badeggi, Niger State, Nigeria.

Accepted 10 December 2018

This study provides evidence for the reality that sustained armed conflict in Nigeria may have significant effect on agricultural production and consequently food security in Nigeria in the long- run. The effect of armed conflicts on agricultural production in Nigeria was modeled in this research work with the use of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) analytical technique while employing data which span the period of 1960-2017 and obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, the statistical online database of the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAOSTAT) of the United Nations, the Polity IV Project of the Center for Global Policy School of Public Policy, George Mason University and Center for Systemic Peace. Augmented-Dickey unit root analysis of the data show that the price of crude oil () in Nigeria and polity2 () which is proxy for measuring for measuring governance and rule of law have order of integration of 0 (I(0)) while the other variables have unit root properties.  Results of Autoregressive Distributed Lags analysis also show that ethnic violence which was the proxy for armed conflict and interaction of ethnic violence and price of crude oil were found to have exerted negative and significant effect on agricultural production in Nigeria. The findings of this study amongst other things show that if  armed conflict is not checked and quickly nipped in Nigeria, agricultural productivity would continue to decline with grave consequences on the nation’s food and nutrition security.

Keywords: Armed Conflict, Crude Oil, Agricultural Production, Food Security, Boko-Haram

How to cite this article (APA Style): Binuomote, S.O., Adeleke, O.A., Farayola, C.O., Olawuyi, T.O., Adebayo S.A. (2018). An Econometric Modelling of the Effect of Armed Conflict on Agricultural Production in Nigeria: (1961-2017). Acad. Res. J. Agri. Sci. Res. 6(9): 584-595