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Academic Research Journal of
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Academic Research Journal of Agricultural Science and Research Vol. 4(5), pp. 206-221. September, 2016. ISSN: 2360-7874 DOI: 10.14662/ARJASR2016.027 Full Length Research Addressing the uncertainties associated in assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural crop production using model simulations
Sridhar Gummadi, Tim Wheeler, Tom Osborne and Andrew Turner2
Walker Institute, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom 2NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom @ Corresponding author: s.gummadi@cgiar.org
Accepted 14 September 2016
Projections of
current and future (SRES A2) climates from the three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL
CM 2.1 and HadCM3) in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)
database assessed by IPCC were selected to study the impacts of climate
change on paddy rice yields over India. Model projections are important
way to study the potential impacts of future projected climate change on
crop production. Such assessments are subjected to a range of
uncertainties arising from climate and crop models, initial conditions
and emissions. On the basis of uncertainties in the impact assessment,
this article summarizes the sources of uncertainty and methods focusing
on processing the uncertainties. Peculiar to this exercise is to improve
the level of confidence in assessment of climate change impacts on crop
production. The EPIC crop simulation model regularly failed to simulate
viable crop yields in the north-western states of India due to
erroneously low precipitation and high temperatures in the baseline
climate. Changes in paddy rice yields varied from -49 to 100 % in the
future when unprocessed climate scenarios were used. However, bias
corrected climate data exhibited changes in paddy rice from -75 to -15%
across major paddy growing states in India. In the elevated CO2
simulations paddy rice yields are increasing by 15% to 17. How to cite this article: Gummadi S, Wheeler T, Osborne T, Turner A (2016). Addressing the uncertainties associated in assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural crop production using model simulations. Acad. Res. J. Agri. Sci. Res. 4(5): 206-221
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