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 Academic Research Journal of Agricultural Science and Research
 

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Academic Research Journal of Agricultural Science and Research 

Vol. 4(5), pp. 206-221. September, 2016.

ISSN: 2360-7874 

 DOI: 10.14662/ARJASR2016.027

Full Length Research

Addressing the uncertainties associated in assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural crop production using model simulations

 

Sridhar Gummadi, Tim Wheeler, Tom Osborne and Andrew Turner2

 

Walker Institute, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom

2NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom

@ Corresponding author: s.gummadi@cgiar.org

 

Accepted 14 September 2016

Abstract

 

Projections of current and future (SRES A2) climates from the three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL CM 2.1 and HadCM3) in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) database assessed by IPCC were selected to study the impacts of climate change on paddy rice yields over India. Model projections are important way to study the potential impacts of future projected climate change on crop production. Such assessments are subjected to a range of uncertainties arising from climate and crop models, initial conditions and emissions. On the basis of uncertainties in the impact assessment, this article summarizes the sources of uncertainty and methods focusing on processing the uncertainties. Peculiar to this exercise is to improve the level of confidence in assessment of climate change impacts on crop production. The EPIC crop simulation model regularly failed to simulate viable crop yields in the north-western states of India due to erroneously low precipitation and high temperatures in the baseline climate. Changes in paddy rice yields varied from -49 to 100 % in the future when unprocessed climate scenarios were used. However, bias corrected climate data exhibited changes in paddy rice from -75 to -15% across major paddy growing states in India. In the elevated CO2 simulations paddy rice yields are increasing by 15% to 17.

Keywords: Bias Correction; Climate Change Impact; EPIC; General Circulation Models; Paddy Rice yields; Uncertainty

 

How to cite this article: Gummadi S, Wheeler T, Osborne T, Turner A (2016). Addressing the uncertainties associated in assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural crop production using model simulations. Acad. Res. J. Agri. Sci. Res. 4(5): 206-221

 

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Current Issue: September 2016

 

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